Eksplorasi Harga Bahan Pokok sebagai Indikator Dini Pengendalian Inflasi di Sumatera Barat

Kory Rahmat Fauzi; Agus Salim; Doni Satria

doi:10.24036/ecosains.12291057.00

Eksplorasi Harga Bahan Pokok sebagai Indikator Dini Pengendalian Inflasi di Sumatera Barat

Kory Rahmat Fauzi⁽¹⁾, Agus Salim⁽²⁾, Doni Satria⁽³⁾,
(1) Jurusan Ilmu Ekonomi Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Negeri Padang

Indonesia
(2) Sekolah Bisnis dan Ekonomi Universitas Prasetiya Mulya

Indonesia
(3) Jurusan Ilmu Ekonomi Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Negeri Padang

Indonesia

Corresponding Author

DOI : https://doi.org/10.24036/ecosains.12291057.00

Full Text:

Language : Indonesia

Abstract

This study explores inflation’s leading indicators in West Sumatra using ten strategic commodities prices. These ten strategic commodities are rice, beef, chicken meat, chicken egg, onion, garlic, red chili, cayenne pepper, cooking oil, and sugar. This study employs the Granger Causality Test to infer the inflation’s leading indicators in West Sumatra using monthly time series data from August 2017 up to December 2021. The results show red chili and chicken meat have a positive and significant effect on inflation in West Sumatra and can be used as Leading Indicators of West Sumatra inflation. The main implication of this finding is the inflation rate would be as volatile as red chili and chicken meat prices.