Estimasi Value At Risk (VaR) Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara Ke Sumatera Barat

Fiqrah Maulani - Universitas Negeri Padang
Media Rosha - Universitas Negeri Padang

Abstract


West Sumatra Province  has become one of the destinations for foreign tourists to travel. There are many types of tourism in West Sumatra, ranging from cultural tourism, sports tourism, religious tourism, and culinary tourism. Because of this existing tourism potential, it is necessary to estimate the maximum loss from tourist visit revenue. One of the risk management for tourism budget losses is by using the Value at Risk method. Value at Risk , namely estimation of the biggest potential loss for a certain period with a certain level of confidence and normal market conditions. Estimation VaR is carried out for forecasting the number of foreign tourist visits from Jan-Jun 2022 with α=5%. The budget issued by the West Sumatra Provincial Office for tourism development is IDR. 209.481.220,00. Then obtained VaR value of  IDR.  112.801.838.04. This means that the biggest loss opportunity borne by the Provincial Government of West Sumatra in the next month from foreign tourist visits to West Sumatra is IDR 112,801,838.04 against a value of IDR 872,400,000.00.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Ohtaki, N., Takano, N., & Ohtomo, H. (1977). Cysticercosis. Nishinihon Journal of Dermatology, 39(2), 188–193.

Pattikawa, S. N., & Zai, K. Y. (2021). Peningkatan PDRB Kota Padang Melalui Industri Pariwisata. Manajemen Ekonomi Keuangan Dan Akuntansi (MEKA), 2(1), 95–98.

Yulius, H. (2022). Peramalan Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara Di Sumatera Barat Pada Saat Pandemi Covid 19. Jurnal Surya Teknika, 8(2), 289–294. https://doi.org/10.37859/jst.v8i2.3173

Prabowo, A. (2018). Analisa Risiko Pembiayaan Pembangunan Kapal Baru Menggunakan Leasing dengan Implementasi Metode Value at Risk (VaR). https://repository.its.ac.id/59163/.

Santosa, A. H., & Setiawan, A. B. (2009). Analisis Risiko Investasi Saham Pada Sektor Properti. Jurnal Universitas Gunadarma, 1-15.

Halim, Abdul. 2005. Analisis Investasi. Edisi kedua. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.

Hidayati, L. N. (2006). MENGUKUR RISIKO PERBANKAN DENGAN VAR ( VALUE AT RISK ) Oleh: Lina Nur Hidayati. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen Universitas Brawijaya, V(3), 156–172.

Maruddani, D. A. I., & Purbowati, A. (2012). Pengukuran Value At Risk Pada Aset Tunggal Dan Portofolio Dengan Simulasi Monte Carlo. Media Statistika, 2(2), 93–104. https://doi.org/10.14710/medstat.2.2.93-104

Tandelilin, E. (2010). Dasar-dasar Manajemen Investasi. Universitas Terbuka

Rohmat, N., & Indrawati, L. R. (2022). Jurnal Jendela Inovasi Daerah. Urnal Jendela Inovasi Daerah Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah Kota Magelang E-ISSN:, V(1), 71–87

Di, L., Udara, B., & Hasanuddin, S. (2019). “Supremasi Hukum” Volume 15 Nomor 2, Juli 2019 Ahmad Fajar Herlani, Awaliani Kharisma Septiana. 15, 65–74.

Yau-, X., Min, T., & Xin-, H. 2009. 肖焱山 1 , 滕 敏 2 , 洪新华 3 1. 4, 42–44.

Pradana, D. C., Maruddani, D. A., & Yasin, H. (2015). Penggunaan Simulasi Monte Carlo Untuk Pengukuran Value at Risk Aset Tunggal dan Portofolio dengan Pendekatan Capital Asset Pricing Model Sebagai Penentu Portofolio Optimal . Jurnal Gaussian, 765-774.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/unpjomath.v7i4.13991