Efek Variabel Kebijakan Moneter Dan Fiskal Terhadap Inflasi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Tingkat Pengangguran Di Indonesia

Jemi Juneldi - Universitas Negeri Padang
Sri Sentosa - Universitas Negeri Padang

Abstract


This study aims to systematize and explain the effect of monetary and fiscal Policy on inflation, economic growth and unemployment rate in Indonesia. This type of research is quantitative research, the data used is secondary data which is analyzed using VAR/VECM. The estimation results show that (1) In the long term, interest rate has negative and significant effect on inflation. In short term, interest rate has positive and significant effect on inflation. (2) Government expenditure has insignificant effect on inflation both in long and short term. (3) Interest rate has negative and significant effect on economic growth both in long and short term. (4) Government expenditure has positive effect on economic growth only significant in long term. (5) Interest rate has positive effect on unemployment rate only significant in long term. (6) Government expenditure has negative and insignificant effect on unemployment rate both in long and short term.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Adegbite, T. A. (2019). an Evolution of the Effect of Taxation Policy on Inflation in Nigeria. Copernican Journal of Finance & Accounting, 8(2), 9. https://doi.org/10.12775/cjfa.2019.006

Ames, B., Brown, W., Devarajan, S., & Izquierdo, A. (2001). Macroeconomic Policy and Poverty Reduction. IMF. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/exrp/macropol/eng/

Bassey, K. J. (2017). Money Supply Growth and Unemployment Rate in Nigeria : Investigating a Long-Run Relationship Using Asymmetric. West African Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 17(1), 45–60.

Blanchard, O. (2017). Book: Macroeconomics.

Case, Karl E.; Fair, Ray C.; Oster, S. M. (2009). Principles of Macroeconomics (ninth edit). Pearson Prentice Hall.

Deliarnov. (2010). Perkembangan Pemikiran Ekonomi (Edisi Keti). Divisi Perguruan Tinggi PT. Raja Grafindo persada.

Dornbushc, R., Late, stanley F., & Vice, R. staRtz. (2016). THIRTEENTH edition.

Egbulonu, K. G., & Amadi, K. W. (2016). Effect Of Fiscal Policy On Unemployment In The Nigerian Economy. International Journal of Innovative Finance and Economics Research, 4(3), 1–7. http://seahipaj.org/journals-ci/sept-2016/IJIFER/full/IJIFER-S-1-2016.pdf

Essien, S. N., Manya, G. A., Arigo, M. O. A., Bassey, K. J., Ogunyinka, S. F., Ojegwo, D. G., & Ogbuehi, F. (2016). Monetary Policy and Unemployment in Nigeria : Is there a Dynamic Relationship ? 7(1), 209–231.

Gabriela, M. A., Anghelache, C., & Manole, A. (2017). the Effect of Unemployment on. 7, 174–186.

Gemechu, K. (2021). The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy Shock in Ethiopia: Evidence from a Bayesian VAR Approach. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3755097

Gujarati, D. N. (2003). BASIC.

Hossein Asgharpur, Lotfali Agheli Kohnehshahri, A. K. (2007). THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION CHANGES: AN ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM INTEREST RATE DYNAMICS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. 1–8.

Jaimovich, N., & Rebelo, S. (2017). Nonlinear effects of taxation on growth. Journal of Political Economy, 125(1), 265–291. https://doi.org/10.1086/689607

Kausar, R., Bahtti, M. K., & Gull, S. (2020). An Effect of Money Supply on Economic Growth : Evidence from Pakistan. September.

Louail, B., & Benarous, D. (2021). Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment Rates in the Algerian Economy : Application of Okun ’ s Law during. 12(1), 71–85.

Macharia, M. K., & Otieno, A. (2019). Effect of Inflation on Unemployment In Kenya. October. https://doi.org/10.21275/ART20174660

Mahyus Ekananda. (2016). Analisis Ekonometrika Time Series (2nd ed.). Penerbit Mitra Wacana Media.

Meyer, D. F., Chipeta, C., & Camel, R. T. M. (2018). An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Interest Rates to Facilitate Price Stability and Economic Growth in South Africa. Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai Oeconomica, 63(3), 68–90. https://doi.org/10.2478/subboec-2018-0015

Mishkin, F. S. (2014). Macroeconomics: Policy and Practice.

N. Gregory Mankiw. (2006). Makroekonomi (6th ed.). Erlangga.

Ndiaye, A. (2018). Public Spending and Growth in the Countries of the Economic Community of West African States. Modern Economy, 09(11), 1949–1975. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2018.911122

Olivier Blanchard, D. R. J. (2017). Makroekonomi (6 Bahasa I). Penerbit Erlangga.

Paul Samuelson, W. N. (2010). Economics (Nineteenth). McGraw-Hill/Irwin, a business unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

Perry Warjiyo, S. (2003). Kebijakan Moneter Indonesia- TKB 6. In PUSAT PENDIDIKAN DAN STUDI KEBANKSENTRALAN (PPSK) BI.

Putriani, D. (2014). A Critical Review on Interest Rate as A Tool of Monetary Policy. Tazkia Islamic Finance and Business Review, 9(2), 150–165. http://www.tifbr-tazkia.org/index.php/TIFBR/article/view/93

Qin, Y. (2020). The Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation--Evidence From U.S. Economy. 159(Febm), 157–162. https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.201211.029

Rendahl, P. (2016). Fiscal policy in an unemployment crisis. Review of Economic Studies, 83(3), 1189–1224. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv058

Samuelson, N. (2004). Ilmu Makro Ekonomi (17th ed.). PT. Media Global Edukasi.

Taderera, Christie and Runganga, R. and M., & Simbarashe and Mishi, S. (2021). Munich Personal RePEc Archive Inflation , interest rate and economic growth nexuses in SACU countries. 105419.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/jkep.v4i2.13316