KONSUMSI DAN INFLASI INDONESIA

Abstract

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and observes (1) the effect of inflation,
disposable income, interest rates and the previous period consumption to  
inflation in Indonesia. (2) the effect   of consumption, interest rate and excange
rates and the money supply to Indonesia Inflation. The type of research is
descriptive and associative studies. The type of data that used is documentary
data, the source of data is secondary data sources.   data is in   the form of time
series  from first quarter of 2000 – to fourth quarter of 2010. This study utilize a
simultaneous   equation model analysis by means of two stages Least Squared
method (TSLS). Endogenous   variable in this study is the consumption and
inflation. While the eksogen variable is the excange rate,money supply,interest
rates disposable income, and previous period consumption. The study yields  
conclusion that (1)inflation,disposable income, interest rates and the previous
period   consumption have a significant effect on consumtion in Indonesia. In a
way that. If there is a decrease of inflation, disposable income and previous
consumption have increased the consumption in Indonesia will increase.
Conversely, if there is an increasing   in consumtion, excange rate (depreciation)
and the money supply while the interest rates go down then it will impact   an
increase in inflation in Indonesia. Vice versa if there is a decrease of
consumption, exchange rate (appreciation) and the money supply, while the
interest rates rise  it will have an impact on reducing  Indonesia inflation.
Keywords: inflation, consumption, disposable income, interest rates and the
consumption of the previous period, exchange rate, and the money supply.