Peramalan Jumlah Konsumsi Energi Listrik di PT PLN (Persero) Rayon Bukittinggi Menggunakan Metode Arima

Abstract

Abstrak –As a provider of electricity revenues of PLN Rayon Bukittinggi can decline. This is due to an imbalance between electric energy produced by the requested consumer. To increase the income of PLN Rayon Bukittinggi by predicting the amount of electrical energy needs far before the electrical energy used by consumers. One method of divination used i.e methods ARIMA. Formulation of the problem in this research is "how forecasting the amount of electrical energy consumption for PT PLN (Persero) Rayon Bukittinggi from June 2016until May 2017 using ARIMA". The results obtained in this study was getting models ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,1)¹² as a suitable model, with a form ofmodelY_t =Y_t-1 -0,4629Y_t-1 +0,4629Y_t-2 +Y_t-12 -Y_t-13 +0,4629Y_t-13 -0,4629Y_t-14 + e_t - 0,9263e_t-1 - 0,7499 e_t-12 +0,6946 e_t-13.

Keywords– Bukittinggi,Electric, Forecasting, ARIMA