Implementasi Metode Autoregressive Distributed Lag untuk Memodelkan Pengaruh Indeks Harga konsumen terhadap Inflasi Di Kota Padang

Abstract

Inflation is defined as a process of rising and falling prices of goods and services, which generally occurs continuously. Inflation in the city of Padang is very volatile, price increases when inflation occurs can be calculated by the Consumer Price Index. The following research aims to build a model and predict inflation in the city of Padang, by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method,is a regression model that substitutes the value of the variable showing the present value and the previous value of the independent variable as one of the explanatory variables. The results of the study show that inflation in the following month is influenced by inflation in the previous month and several groups of Consumer Price Index are also taken into account in this model.