Identification of Mesoscale Convective System Phenomena in Relation to Heavy Rain in Semarang (Case Study of the Squall Line on March 13, 2024)

Shintia Cahya - State College of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Reinal Halawa - State College of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Muhammad Alghazali - State College of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Naufaldi Saifulloh - State College of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Aries Kristianto - State College of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics

Abstract


Indonesia, located in the equatorial region, experiences complex rainfall variability influenced by various climatic and geographic factors. Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS), including squall lines, are a significant contributor to extreme weather phenomena such as heavy rainfall and strong winds. This study investigates the mesoscale convective system (MCS) phenomenon, focusing on its formation, atmospheric dynamics, and associated rainfall distribution. 

This research investigates the squall line phenomenon, specifically focusing on a squall line event in Semarang, Indonesia, on March 13, 2024. Utilizing data from Himawari-8 satellite imagery, ERA5 reanalysis, and GSMaP rainfall observations, the research identifies the development, atmospheric dynamics, and rainfall intensity of the squall line. Satellite imagery analysis revealed the squall line's linear pattern with cloud top temperatures below -60°C, forming during intense convective activity. Atmospheric instability indices, including CAPE and LI, indicated favorable conditions for squall line development, based on a Skew-T Log-P diagram, shows CAPE values reaching 427 J/kg, minimal CIN, and increasing wind shear with altitude. Rainfall distribution analysis identified localized extreme precipitation exceeding 120 mm within the study period, which aligns with the squall line's trajectory. The findings highlight the significant role of squall lines in triggering heavy rainfall and hydrometeorological disasters in Indonesia, emphasizing the need for accurate monitoring and early warning systems.

The findings highlight the critical role of mesoscale dynamics in triggering squall lines and their potential to induce hydrometeorological disasters. This study underscores the need for improved monitoring and forecasting of MCS events to mitigate their impacts on vulnerable regions like Semarang.


References


N. A. P. Indaryono, “ANALISA PERBANDINGAN ALGORITMA RANDOM FOREST DAN NAÏVE BAYES UNTUK KLASIFIKASI CURAH HUJAN BERDASARKAN IKLIM DI INDONESIA,” JIPI (Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Pembelajaran Informatika), 2024, [Online]. Available at: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:269401185

Tukidin, “KARAKTER CURAH HUJAN DI INDONESIA,” 2010. [Online]. Available at: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:161636085

R. A. Houze Jr, “Mesoscale convective systems,” Reviews of Geophysics, vol. 42, no. 4, 2004.

J. M. Fritsch and G. S. Forbes, “Mesoscale Convective Systems,” Meteorological Monographs, vol. 28, page 323–357, 2001.

R. A. Maddox, “Mesoscale Convective Complex,” Meteorological Society, 61(11), 1374-1387.

R. A. Hamilton and J.w. Archbold, “Meteorology of Nigeria and Adjacent Territory,” Quart. J. Roy. Meteorology Society, 71, 231-262.

E. J. Zipser, “Mesoscale and convective-scale downdrafts as distinct components of squall-line circulation”, Monthly Weather Review, 105, 1568-1589.

C. E. Hane, “Extratropical Squall Lines and Rainbands,” 1986. [Online]. Available at: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:127080660.

R. A. Houze, “Structure and Dynamics of a Tropical Squall–Line System,” Mon Weather Rev, vol. 105, hlm. 1540–1567, 1977, [Online]. Available at: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:123323862.

C. J. Kessinger, P. S. Ray, and C. E. Hane, “The Oklahoma Squall Line of 19 May 1977. Part I: A Multiple Doppler Analysis of Convective and Stratiform Structure,” J Atmos Sci, vol. 44,page 2840–2865, 1987, [Online]. Available at: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:119802031.

H. B. Bluestein and M. H. Jain, “Formation of mesoscale lines of precipitation: Severe squall lines in Oklahoma during the spring,” J Atmos Sci, vol. 42, no. 16, page 1711–1732, 1985.

A. BMKG, Pemutakhiran Zona Musim di Indonesia. BMKG, 2022.

S. C. Peatman, J. Schwendike, C. E. Birch, J. H. Marsham, A. J. Matthews, dan G. Y. Yang, “A local-to-large scale view of Maritime Continent rainfall: control by ENSO, MJO and equatorial waves,” Journal of Climate, page 1-52, 2021.

Z. Li, W. Yu, K. Li, B. Liu, and G. Wang, “Modulation of interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity over Southeast Indian Ocean by negative IOD phase,” Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, vol. 72, page 62–69, 2015.

S. Amri and G. Giarno, “Analisis Dinamika Atmosfer Pada Kejadian Banjir, Tanah Longsor, dan Angin Kencang Di Semarang dan Demak Tanggal 13 Maret 2024,” Jurnal Ilmiah Biosaintropis (Bioscience-Tropic), vol, 10(1), page 77-89, 2024.

E. T. Özdemir, V. Yavuz, A. Deniz, H. Karan, M. Kartal, and S. Kent, “Squall line over Antalya: a case study of the events of 25 October 2014,” Weather, vol. 74, page S1–S6, 2019.

A. M. Hidayat, U. Efendi, H. N. Rahmadini, and I. R. Nugraheni, “The Characteristics of squall line over Indonesia and its vicinity based on Himawari-8 satellite imagery and radar data interpretation,” in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, IOP Publishing, 2019, page 012059.

I. M. K. Tirtanegara, A. M. D. Himawan, U. Harisiwi, N. Sari, and I. Redha, “Identifikasi Fenomena Squall Line Menggunakan Radar Cuaca EEC Pontianak (Studi Kasus Tanggal 5-6 Mei 2019)”, 2019.

L. A. T. Machado, & H. Laurent, “The convective system area expansion over Amazonia and its relationships with convective system life duration and high-level wind divergence,” Monthly Weather Review, 132(3), 714–725, 2004.

T. Kubota, K. Aonashi, T. Ushio, S. Shige, Y. N. Takayabu, M. Kachi, M., ... & R. Oki, “Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) products in the GPM era,” Satellite Precipitation Measurement: Volume 1, 355-373, 2020.

R. F. Adler, G. J. Huffman, A. Chang, R. Ferraro, P. P. Xie, J. Janowiak, ... & E. Nelkin, “The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present),” Journal of hydrometeorology, 4(6), 1147-1167, 2003.

K. Husna dan M. A. Munandar, “Analisis Nilai Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) Selama Tahun 2013-2016 Terhadap Hujan di Jakarta,” Prosiding Sains Nasional dan Teknologi, vol. 1, no. 1, 2017.

M. D. Syaifullah, “Kondisi Curah Hujan Pada Kejadian Banjir Jakarta Dan Analisis Kondisi Udara Atas Wilayah Jakarta Bulan Januari–Februari 2013,” Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca, vol. 14, no. 1, page 19–27, 2013.

P. Ismail, “Profil Lifting Condensation Level (LCL), Convective Condensation Level (CCL), dan Estimasi Tinggi Dasar Awan di Wilayah Makassar,” Buletin GAW Bariri (BGB), vol. 1, no. 2, page 58–66, 2020.

A. L. Houston dan D. Niyogi, “The Sensitivity of Convective Initiation to the Lapse Rate of the Active Cloud-Bearing Layer,” Mon Weather Rev, vol. 135, page 3013–3032, 2006, [Online]. Available at: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:16278564




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/17058171074