ANALISIS VARIABEL MONETER AMERIKA SERIKAT TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI NEGARA EMERGING MARKET

Sindi Oktaviani - Universitas Negeri Padang
Hasdi Aimon - Universitas Negeri Padang
Dewi Putri - Universitas Negeri Padang

Abstract


This study aims to find effect of monetary variable of US on economic growth in emerging market countries, such as Indonesian, Malaysian, Thailand and Philipines. These four countries are commonly called tiger cub countries that have the potential to become developed countriesin the future. The data used are secondary data in the form of time series from 2010:Q1 until 2018:Q4. The variables used are gap of The Fed Funds rate and gap of Inflation of US as exogen variable. Then, exchange rate and economic growth as endogen variable. The research methods used are simultaneous equation regression model with indirect least square methode. The results of the study show that (1)Gap of The Fed Interest Rate has a significant effect on the exchange rate in all sample of Emerging Market Countries while US inflation only has a significant effect on the exchange rate in Indonesia.(2) in simultaneously gap of The Fed Interest rate, gap of US inflation and the exchange rate which contaminated by changes in the US monetary variable have a significant influence on economic growth in Emerging Market Countries, except in Malaysian.(3) In partially, gap of The Fed Interest rate and the exchange rate have a significant influence on economic growth in Indonesian, Thailand and Philipines.While gap of US inflation has a significant influence on economic growth only in Indonesian and Philipines.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Abdurehman, Abderezak Ali dan Samet Hacilar. 2016. “The Relationship between Exchange Rate and Inflation : An Empirical Study of Turkey.” 6(4):1454–59.

Atmadja, Adwin S. 1999. “Inflasi di Indonesia :” 1(1): 54–67.

Bank Indonesia. 2017.Q&A Local Currency Settlement Berbasis Appointed Cross Currency Dealers (19): 2017–18.

. 2015. Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia.Jakarta

.2017.Laporan Perkembangan Ekonomi Keuangan dan Kerja sana Internasional Edisi IV Tahun 2017 “Ekonomi Global Memasuki Siklus Pengetatan Moneter.”Jakarta

.2018.“Laporan Perkembangan Ekonomi Keuangan dan Kerja sama Internasional Edisi III Tahun 2018.” 5–32

Cheung,Yin-Wong dan Yuen Jude. 2002.Effects of U.S. Inflation on Hong Kong and Singapore.Working Paper. “www.econstor.eu.”

di Giovanni, Julian dan Jay C. Shambaugh. 2008. “The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime.” Journal of International Economics 74(2):341–61.

Direktorat Jenderal Kerjasama ASEAN Departemen Luar Negeri Republik Indoensia.2007.ASEAN Selayang Pandang.Jakarta

Ekananda, Mahyus. 2014. Ekonomi Internasional. Jakarta: Erlangga.

Guellil, Zeyneb dan Mohammed Benbouziane. 2013. “Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth in Developing Countries : An Empirical Study Using Panel Data from 1980 to 2013.” 379–91.

Heng, Panha dan Scott J. Niblock. 2014. “Rise of the ‘tiger cub’ economies: an empirical investigation of Southeast Asian stock market efficiency.” International Journal of Economics and Business Research 8(4):474.

Iacoviello, Matteo dan Gaston Navarro. 2018. “Foreign effects of higher U.S. interest rates.” Journal of International Money and Finance 1–19.

IMF.2018.Fokus Negara IMF “Ekonomi, Dinamis Terus, dan Memimpin Pertumbuhan”.

Jhingan, M. L. 2016. Ekonomi Pembangunan dan Perecanaan. Edisi 1. PT Raja Grafindo Persada Jakarta : Rajawali Pers

Koitsiwe, Kegomoditswe dan Tsuyoshi Adachi. 2015. “Relationship between mining revenue , government consumption , exchange rate and economic growth in Botswana.” Contaduría y Administración 60:133–48.

Leeper, Eric M., Christopher a Sims, dan Tao Zha. 1996. “What Does Monetary Policy Do?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 27:1–78.

Maćkowiak, Bartosz. 2007. “External shocks, U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets.” Journal of Monetary Economics 54(8):2512–20.

Mcpherson, Malcolm F. dan Tzvetana Rakovski. 2000. “Exchange Rates and Economic Growth in Kenya : An Econometric Analysis Office of Sustainable Development Equity and Growth through Economic Research.” (56).

Mankiw, N. Gregory. 2007. Teori Makro Ekonomi. Edisi Ke Enam.Erlangga : Jakarta.

Nanga,Muana.2001.Teori, Masalah, dan Kebijakan Makrekonomi.Edisi Perdana.PT. RajaGrafindo Persada : Jakarta

Mwinlaaru,Peter Yeltulme dan Ofori,Isaac Kwesi. 2017. Real Exchange Rate And Economic Growth in Ghana“Mp r a.” (82405).

Raj, Janak, Sarat Dhal, dan Rajeev Jain. 2014. “Imported Inflation : The Evidence from India Imported Inflation : The Evidence from India.” (June).

Salvatore, Dominick. 2014. Ekonomi Internasional Edisi Kesembilan Buku 2. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.

Survey Economi OECD Indonesia. 2018. Ikhtisar

Selamat, Aszlan. 2017. “Hubungan Ekonomi Amerika Syarikat ( AS ) -Malaysia Pasca 9 / 11 Era Pentadbiran Bush.” (November 2015).

Sinungan,Muchdarsyah.1995.Uang & Bank.Jakarta:PT.Rineka Cipta

Salvatore, Dominick. 2014. Ekonomi Internasional Edisi Kesembilan Buku 2. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.

Stanleys,Morgan. Tales from the Emerging World, (October 2013), 1–4.

Susanto.2008. “Pengaruh inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, dan nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia.”

Titley,Brian. 2012. “Complete Economics dictionary.” 1–13.

Tobergte, David R. dan Shirley Curtis. 2013. “Modern Economic Growth.” Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling 53(9):1689–99.

Todaro, M. P. Dan S. C. Smith. 2006. Pembangunan Ekonomi. Jilid 2. Edisi Kesembilan. Jakarta: Erlangg

Unver, Mustafa adan Bulent dogru.(2015). The Determinants Of Economic Fragility:Case of The Fragile Five Countries.Mp r a, (66085).




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/jkep.v1i2.6166